Prediction of Influenza Transmission in Mass Gathering: A Systematic Review

Abstract

The unique characteristics of Hajj gatherings over other mass gatherings include the yearly large crowd of 3 million pilgrims who come from more than 180 countries and usually stay for several days in Mecca, Saudi Arabia. Despite the successful efforts of the authorities in Saudi Arabia in the management of this huge crowd of Hajj pilgrims, epidemics have been an emerging concern. The presence of an early warning system that can predict the occurrence of epidemics will guide the preparedness plans and strengthen the ability to contain the problem. The modeling is a powerful tool for the prediction of the epidemic dissemination among Hajj pilgrims, which can guide and improve preventive interventions. The main purpose of this review is to evaluate influenza prediction models which available in the literature. The epidemiological parameters of influenza infectivity were collected from the literature. The epidemiological parameters of susceptibility and immunity of the Hajj pilgrims were obtained from health authorities. The parameters of contact rate and patterns were collected by previous surveys. The movement of the Hajj crowd in term of time and place were simulated using crowd modeling techniques. According to the distance that allows the droplet transmission of influenza, a contact is defined as the surrounding person at a distance of 2 m from the patient. It was divided according to country of origin and age of pilgrims since those factors are important in determining the contact patterns of pilgrims. Based on the previous parameters, researchers can predict the transmission of the influenza virus.